Stephanie Davies-Arai’s Organization Exposes the Lies of “The Study” Quoted by Ideologues, their “Suicides Narrative” Exposed for Fraudulent Methods

Transgender Trend, headed by Stephanie Davies-Arai, published the details. sorted out by one anonymous mother, regarding the “PACE Study,” often quoted by cross-sex ideologues as “proof” that cross-sex ideating youth are at risk for completed suicides if they are not immediately rushed into medicalizing hormones, then surgeries to “change sex.”

The study was not specifically of cross-sex ideating individuals, and the original objectives of the study were broadly regarding bisexual and lesbian women and homosexual men, their mental health issues, while at the same time sweeping in a small cohort of self-identifying cross-sex subjects. Here is an excerpt from Transgender Trend’s excellent article, after my statement regarding the dangers of discussing suicidal ideation casually.

I hesitate to even put the word suicide into the title of an article; however, due to the overuse of this narrative and the constant quoting of these bad data, this has to be countered head on. While thoughts of self-harm and ending one’s life might occur, or foggy thinking along these lines may crop up with anyone in a crisis, it is immoral and unethical to attempt suicide or suggest to someone else that they may feel this way. The persons who find the body are traumatized. The families of are traumatized. Unsuccessful attempts result in terrible outcomes. No one should be speaking of suicide as if it is a reasonable choice when you think there’s something wrong with your life. This is morally and ethically unsound practice; life is sacred, there is always an alternative. This was my thought process the two evenings in my life when all felt impossible and my thoughts were fogged. No. There are always others that your life affects. Just think–two days ago I found out I succeeded in talking a younger neighbor into walking himself into the rehab center. We thought he wouldn’t, then he did. I know I made a difference in that family’s life. I charged through my woods over and over to this back yard neighbor family’s place, because “I am my brother’s keeper.”

Below, an excerpt of the truth of this irresponsible, bad data, from the organization, Transgender Trend.

The survey recruited 2,078 people of all sexualities and genders.  The majority of those 2,078 people were not transgender.  

When analysing the responses relating to suicidal ideation the study only looked at respondents under the age of 26.  This reduced the sample size to 485 people.  Of these, 27 identified themselves as trans*.  That’s TWENTY SEVEN.  Not 2,000 trans* people, 58% of whom had considered suicide, but 27 trans* people, 15 of whom had considered suicide.

It is tragic when anyone considers suicide but it’s also unfortunately extremely common.  According to the same study a third of young LGB people have, but this fact is not emblazoned on every leaflet or proclaimed loudly by Stonewall in every media discussion.

From the survey:

“…given the nature of PACE and also of the topic of the research, it is possible that there is a disproportion amongst research participants of people with experience of or who are sensitive towards mental health issues.” 

Indeed the recruitment methods described were very likely to attract trans* people who were receiving or had sought support for mental health issues.  The survey sums up with the caveat:

Ultimately our findings can only be considered valid for our samples.”

Yet transgender support organisations are presenting these statistics as facts, scaring transgender people themselves, their families and anyone who has dealings with them. 

Back to the statistics.  Let’s turn it into numbers that reflect the truth of the survey results:

2014 survey of 27 young trans people in UK

13 had previously attempted suicide

8 attempted suicide in the last year

(Ute’s notes: this means the sample of the statistically non-significant number of cross-sex identifying individuals was not representative of the group AS A CLASS OF INDIVIDUALS. They were a very small cohort of self-selected persons who already had other mental health issues identified. The cross-sex ideologues continue to conflate all mental health crises in these subjects to be the result of a wish to be born in the opposite sexed body. No. Detransitioners tell us they had other mental health problems that were not addressed and solved by the cross-sex path. Thus, there is no “true life test” and the diagnosis is not stable. Rather, it is a distraction from other serious mental health conditions. This misrepresentation is common in all of the studies cross-sex ideologues quote as “proof.”)

With no adjustment for co-morbid mental health issues or the fact that the respondents may well have found out about or been attracted to completing the survey because of their interaction with mental health services or history of suicide attempts, these figures should really not be extrapolated to apply to the entire transgender population.

Whether or not you think a sample size of 27 people is representative of an entire group and justifies the entire group being labelled according to the findings of such a small study, there is a glaring issue here.  Mermaids, the support group for transgender children and their families, effectively lied in its presentation to a roomful of legal professionals.   The survey was not of 2,000 trans people at all.  Saying it was lends credence to a trope that is already incredibly emotive and potentially dangerous.

Bandying around these doctored statistics as facts does a good job of garnering support for the cause and strikes fear into people who might otherwise be less than supportive of certain demands by and on behalf of transgender people but at what cost?  Are there not enough genuine arguments to further the cause for equal treatment of transgender people without resorting to exaggeration and obfuscation of the truth?  Presenting this trope to families of transgender children and young people is nothing short of emotional blackmail.  “Allow your child to transition or you will have their suicide on your hands.”  In any other context threatening suicide in order to force others to accept your demands is emotional abuse, in the context of transition it is positively encouraged as a way to dismiss concerns of friends and family.

By announcing that trans people are an unmitigated suicide risk we are telling them and their families that they are likely to commit suicide.  People are very suggestible.  If you are told 50% of people like you will be suicidal, when you are having a dark day, instead of thinking tomorrow will be better, are you not more likely to worry that you’re going the way of all those suicidal folks and therefore spiral downwards?  Parents who think their child is suicidal may treat them differently and make different decisions based on that information.

Suicide is contagious.  Suicidal ideation is incredibly dangerous, especially for young people.  There are guidelines in place for reporting of suicide for a reason and, in the main, the press seem to follow them with one glaring exception – transgender people. Surely transgender people would be better served with a positive movement like It Gets Better rather than seeing their advocates and support organisations constantly telling people that they are a danger to themselves.

The dangers of the transgender suicide narrative are discussed in a roundtable debate published recently by the site 4thWaveNow. 

This post from Fair Play for Women comprehensively exposes the tactics of Mermaids and places the transgender suicide statistics within the context of wider mental health statistics for all young people. 

The Samaritans can be contacted here.

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